In 2015, a new agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol was signed in Paris, France. The Paris Agreement aims to ensure that the average global temperature does not rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It requires all countries to set and implement their own greenhouse gas emission targets, with the ultimate goal of achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris Agreement has no fixed endpoint. The main provisions of the agreement are as follows:

  1. Developed countries are required to reduce the absolute amount of greenhouse gas emissions, while developing countries are encouraged to adopt economy-wide reduction methods, with reduction obligations allocated based on their level of national responsibility.

  2. Strive to slow global climate change as much as possible by pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

  In 2024, numerous climate change monitoring organizations around the world predicted that the earthʼs average temperature this year would rise by more than 1.55°C compared to pre-industrial levels, surpassing the 1.5°C threshold for the first time in history. Consequently, the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), held in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, from Nov. 11 to 22, 2024, became a critical event in addressing future climate change challenges. Key topics discussed at COP29 included carbon emissions, the phase-out of fossil fuels, and the management of natural resources.

  COP29 has played an important role in addressing climate change but has faced significant challenges. The situation changed rapidly when former President Donald Trump was re-elected in the 2024 Presidential Election. Known for his anti-environmentalist stance, Trump had previously withdrawn from the Paris Agreement during his first term in 2017. In line with his environmental policies, he continues to ignore environmental pollution, abolish environmental regulations, and withdraw from the Paris Agreement.

  In April 2023, the Biden administration announced the strictest exhaust gas limit regulations to date for medium-sized trucks and large vehicles, including passenger cars. The goal of these regulations was to protect the environment by reducing vehicle emissions by 56% by 2032. However, Trump argued that these regulations distorted the energy market, limited consumer choice, and increased consumer costs. He pledged to abolish the emissions regulations as part of his presidential campaign.

  Trump stated, “I will bring the coal industry back to ensure that all Americans have access to affordable energy.” To achieve this, he plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, abolish electric vehicle mandates, and reduce reliance on Chinese rare-earth element, fundamentally changing the dynamics of U.S.-China competition.

  Trump declared withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and opposed all Green New Deal policies aimed at halting the development of U.S. energy resources. “Cheap electricity could give America an advantage in developing sophisticated AI that competes with China,” he said. “Because energy costs in the U.S. will be the lowest in the world, in the future, all manufacturing plants, data centers, semiconductor facilities, and assembly lines will want to relocate to the U.S..” He advocated for the abolition of environmental regulations to support resource development. Specifically, the plan includes expediting approvals for shale gas drilling and abolishing all regulations related to oil and natural gas projects.

  The general view is that if the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement again, in line with Trumpʼs environmental pledge, it will increase the burden on the remaining parties to the agreement. This could potentially trigger a domino effect, with other interested countries following the U.S. and also withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.

  Carbon Brief, a British climate think tank, predicted that Trumpʼs election would become a significant obstacle to multilateral cooperation on climate change. The think tank stated “According to an analysis conducted earlier this year, if Trump is elected, U.S. emissions could increase by an additional 400 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2030, compared to continuing with the current U.S. President Joe Biden’s plan.” It further warned, “With his comments on expanding oil and gas production, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, and rolling back key climate and clean energy policies, domestic climate policy and multilateral cooperation face extreme uncertainty and stress.”

  An article published in Nature, one of the worldʼs top three academic journals stated, “We must retain the best policies from the previous administration and not revert to the policies of the first President Trump.” It argued that it would be very difficult to negotiate a strong agreement on climate change without the participation of the U.S., the worldʼs largest economy and a major greenhouse gas emitter. The article also emphasized the need for scientists to unite against the new Trump administration, stating, “Scientists must hold President Trump accountable with courage and unity.”

  Jeong Su-jong, a professor at Seoul National Universityʼs Graduate School of Environmental Studies, argues that Trumpʼs term could actually present an opportunity. “Because carbon-neutral markets, such as renewable energy and green hydrogen, have already been established, no matter how influential the U.S. president is, they cannot go against this global trend.” Therefore, it is anticipated that investing in climate disaster response technology and energy technology during Trumpʼs term, in preparation for its eventual conclusion, could position countries to take the lead in future climate technologies.

  Additionally, Joanna Lewis, director of Georgetown Universityʼs Science, Technology, and International Governance Program, told Nature that “Trump is unlikely to block America’s gradual transition to clean energy.” She added, “The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), enacted by the Biden administration in 2022, has created government investments in climate and clean energy, and businesses and leaders in conservative states already benefiting from these investments may not want to block federal funding.” They argue that the global trend toward renewable energy and carbon neutrality are unstoppable, and Trump cannot reverse it.

  COP29 faced difficulties due to conflicts of opinion between leaders prioritizing their own national interests. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who delivered the keynote speech as the chairman of the COP29 summit on Nov. 12, said, “Oil and natural gas are Godʼs gifts.” Azerbaijan is a typical resource-dependent economy, and according to 2023 statistics, oil and gas account for about 91.5% of its total exports. The Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban stated, “We must advance the green transition while maintaining the use of natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy,” but added, “We cannot sacrifice our industry or agriculture in the process.” “We cannot impose unrealistic quotas or burdensome regulations on farmers and businesses,” he emphasized.

  On Nov. 13, local time, the Argentine delegation at COP29 suddenly withdrew. The specific reasons for the withdrawal are unclear, but, during his presidential election campaign last year, Argentine President Javier Milei described climate change as a socialist lie. According to the British daily, The Guardian, President Milei spoke with Trump on Nov. 12. After the call, Mileiʼs spokesman reported that Trump told President Milei, “You are my favorite president.” Experts predict that the sudden withdrawal of the Argentine delegation from COP29 may be due to Trumpʼs influence.

  COP29 closed on Nov. 24, later than the scheduled closing date of Nov. 22. This is due to the disengagement of the delegations from each country. COP29 arranged agreement documents about fossil fuel reduction, stating that it will generally accelerate the move away from fossil fuels within a decade. This content is no different from document of agreement in 2023. COP29 also delayed specifying the timing of the abolition of coal thermal power generation. The Guardian said “The climate finance agreement consulted at COP29 is a comedy of justice,” adding that “It should not have been adopted.” Chandni Raina, India’s Economic Adviser, argued “In our view, this is not going to solve the enormous problems we all face.”